Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the private military company Wagner and commander of the Wagner mercenary force in Ukraine, is supposed to be in Belarus with his 25,000-strong Wagner force. On 28 June he issued first statement to explain his feud with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

He noted that the Wagner mutiny on 23 June was not a coup designed to overthrow the government in Moscow but a “march for justice”, a form of protest against the Defense Ministry’s plans to incorporate the Wagner into the regular army. 

“The Wagner are perhaps the most experienced and capable military force in Russia, and possibly in the world. […] As a result of intrigues and unwise decisions, this force was ordered to cease its existence from 1 July 2023. A council of [field] commanders rallied and passed all information to their fighters: yet no one agreed to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense,” Prigozhin said in an audio message via his Telegram channel. 

Just 2% of Wagner fighters “switched the sides,” according to Putin’s former ally.

Had the Wagner become part of the Russian regular army, they would have lost their skills and would have been used as cannon meat at the Ukrainian frontlines, Prigozhin explained, renewing accusations of incompetence within the Ministry of Defense but not attacking President Vladimir Putin personally, implying that the latter was misled by his top generals.

What is this game about?

Prigozhin, a decorated Hero of Russia, demanded earlier that Sergey Shoygu, another Hero of Russia, and General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov, a Hero of Russia too, be sacked for erratic decisions and incompetence, suggesting that his ally General Sergey Surovikin (yes, a Hero of Russia) take command of the armed forces while his friend and Tula region governor Alexey Dyumin (yes, a Hero of Russia, too) assume the ministerial office. 

Surovikin had already held the command of all Russian armed forces in Ukraine before being replaced by Gerasimov in 2022, and Dyumin was a deputy defense minister in 2015-16.

Valery Gerasimov, Vladimir Putin, Sergey Shoygu.

Credit: AP

As he holds no official posts in the Russian governmental configuration, Prigozhin’s demands go far beyond his competences and look like an attempt to blackmail the Kremlin, though he might have known that President Putin would not accept advice from anyone of Prigozhin rank.

Putin’s exclusive decision to start the war in Ukraine is a clear proof in this regard. Given that the Russian leader approves all decisions regarding the war and neither his Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu nor General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov would cross his boss’ will, the idea to disband the Wagner more than certainly received Putin’s approval.

Prigozhin knows that and then his uprising targets Putin directly. What are the chances that the Wagner leader has gone upstream? Now many. See our arguments.

Lukashenko’s role

Belarus is a country remotely controlled from Moscow. Alexander Lukashenko would not propose anything of the kind that ruins his ally’s reputation or jeopardizes his rule – he is heavily dependent on Putin. Opening the gates to Putin’s enemy can’t really be true unless the Kremlin leader has given his blessing.

More to read:
Russian generals created Wagner-2 to derail government funds meant for mercenaries

On the other hand, there have been no video records so far of Wagner fighters on Belarussian territory. After ordering his mercenaries to stop marching towards Moscow (from south to north) and then turn back (southward), did they finally walk westward for Belarus? Has anyone seen them on the way to the neighboring country?

Feuds are fought in silence

It is well known that Vladimir Putin never forgives his foes who speak against him, not to mention those who venture into an armed rebellion against his regime. Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian FSB officer who defected to the UK, was murdered with plutonium. Opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was shot dead right near the Kremlin walls. Alexey Navalny has been in prison since 2021.

And now letting Prigozhin enjoy a break from fighting with thousands of armed men by his side? At a time when every fighter is badly needed to stop the Ukrainian offensive? Not buying this.

Map of Wagner march towards Moscow. Credit: WSJ

He might have also tolerated and encouraged the feuds between his subordinates, which is justified willing to hold an exclusive grip on power. On the other hand, such internal conflicts are usually waged and settled behind the scene, in silence.

Mourning show

Prigozhin cares for Russian lives – any human life – just as much as Putin does. Or Shoygu and Gerasimov. Playing an angry dad who mourns his sons killed in action because of ammunition shortage is not convincing. Neither the regular troops had enough weapons and ammunition, but Shoygu and Gerasimov were not complaining, in spite of the fact that Putin was close enough.

Coordination of a hoax operation?

The above thoughts suggest that the events surrounding the so-called Wagner mutiny may be a hoax coordinated in the Kremlin. As the Ukrainian army continues testing occupants’ positions in order to find a breach in Russian defenses, the departure of the Wagner troops seem to have weaken those positions.

If the Wagner mercenaries are as strong as Prigozhin boasts, then Moscow should be in deep trouble. And yet no fresh units have rushed to fill in the positions left by the Wagner. A Ukrainian offensive in those area could lead into a trap.

More to read:
[videos] Russian army’s regular unit believed to take Wagner side

And if we believe that the Wagner have arrived in Belarus, could they launch an unexpected attack from the north? Or at least force Ukraine to move units and equipment out of the southern flank in order to reinforce the border with its northern neighbor. Otherwise it makes little sense for Belarus to host and feed thousands of foreign professional fighters. 

Although President Putin has demonstrated little strategic thinking when it comes to war, he still remains a former KGB officer who is a master of lies and loves to play spy games.