Russian Academy of Sciences suggests a milder stance on refugees of African descent.

Record-low birth rates, massive outflow of Russians, and heavy casualties in the war against Ukraine require the Russian Federation to reconsider its immigration policy, particularly by relaxing the entry and naturalization laws for citizens of African countries.

The proposal comes from Dmitry Poletayev, a leading researcher at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who warned of a deteriorating demographic situation in Russia during a meeting of the Valday Discussion Club, a government-private sector platform which the Kremlin uses to push for its economic and social agenda. 

"We currently have very few Russians of African descent… […] the African diaspora counts around 40,000 people," said Poletayev earlier this month, asking President Vladimir Putin to update the entry and naturalization mechanisms for accepting immigrants and refugees from African nations. 

His proposal was framed as part of a series of Russia-Africa ties reports that Russian officials presented on 18-24 July during a week-long summit for a handful of African leaders, in Valday, a city some 380 kilometers north-west of Moscow. 

Poletayev predicted that the number of African migrants would likely increase due to climate deterioration and new conflicts on the continent, therefore Russia could seize the moment for its own benefit.

The scientist, however, contradicted himself by saying that Russia should offer “temporary” asylum to African immigrants and that the country is currently unprepared to accommodate African refugees due to legal and logistic issues.

According to Rosstat, Russia’s statistical agency, a little more than half a million Russians were born between January and May 2023, which is 11,000 fewer than in the same period of last year. The birth rate, 8.5 per 1,000 residents, is the second-worst in modern Russian history. Only in 1999 it was lower - 8.3 births per 1,000 people.

Despite a 14.5% decrease in death rate, it was insufficient to halt the natural population decline, which constituted an additional 236,700 to the 2.9-million loss of people during the previous five years.

In a pessimistic scenario without an influx of migrants, the Vishnevsky Institute of Demography predicts that the permanent population of Russia could decrease by 80 million people by the end of the 21st century, from 147 million at present.

Annual loss would swing between 390,000 and 1.1 million people and by the turn of next century the Russian population could compare with current-day Thailand (69.6 million people), France (68.9 million), or Tanzania (67.9 million).

By western estimates, the war in Ukraine has claimed 200,000 Russian lives, mainly men, while around one million people left the country.

The 27-28 July Russia-Africa summit concluded with no major economic undertakings, with some participants telling journalists that the guests were mainly interested in weapons and debt forgiveness.