The notorious investigative journalist believes it’s easier to liberate the Crimea than the Donbass.

Christo Grozev, a Bulgaria-born investigative journalist who is among the most informed commentators about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, predicts that Ukraine will defeat Russia and will end the war by the close of this year, 2023. 

He said in a video interview for the Russian service of the Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty station that Ukraine will most likely recapture all of the territories occupied by Russian troops since 2014, including the Crimean Peninsula. 

“To a large extent, this [outcome of the war] depends on how much the West, the world continues to help Ukraine, and this [support] also depends on the elections in America. If everything goes the way we see it now, then I see a kinetic victory for Ukraine before the end of this year. [...] I even think that Crimea is more likely to be liberated than Donbass. The motivation for a Ukrainian citizen in relation to the Crimea is so strong that I am sure it will become a priority. The Donbass or a part of it can be done [liberated too], but I'm not sure they are willing to pay a huge human price for its liberation,” the journalist said.

He agreed to his interviewer’s observation that it is easier to isolate the peninsula and cut off the Russian supplies lines there, rather than doing so in the Donbass, which borders with Russia.

Christo Grozev also cited a source in the Wagner private army as describing the state of the Russian army in pessimistic terms, “The war will be over by the end of this year, but life in Russia will never be better.”

Asked what will happen to Russia after Ukraine’s eventual victory, the media expert said the defeat would remove Vladimir Putin from power and the country could benefit from a “Marshall Plan” with Western funding, under the condition that the elite shifted from dictatorship to a regime with democratic features.

“If the whole elite... Although there will be no political elite then, because it will be completely compromised. But the economic, even the siloviki (security) elite of the siloviki - if they care for their own interests, then they must offer the world an acceptable solution, that is, a solution that is not a dictatorship, but has a significant democratic element, in order to agree with the West regarding assistance, a Marshall Plan, which will be shared with Ukraine. Therefore, I very much hope that the economic elite and the security elite in Russia will act in their own interests,” Grozev stated.

Christo Grozev led the Bellingcat team during the investigation of the 2014 Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 crash, which took about 300 lives. The passenger aircraft was shot down by Russian military while flying over eastern Ukraine. 

Grozev also investigated the poisoning of Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny in 2020 by Russian intelligence agents with the Novichok nerve chemicals, which are banned worldwide. 

He also uncovered the Russian spy network which participated in the poisoning of the Skripal family in the United Kingdom with the same prohibited chemical weapons. 

The Russian security service FSB and the military intelligence GRU are hunting the Bulgarian journalist for his role in these investigations. Russia issued in 2022 an international arrest warrant on Grozev’s name, without stating the formal reasons for this decision.

Last February, he had to leave Austria, where he had lived for many years, over security concerns, saying that Vienna was “a nestle of Russian agents trying to kill me.”