This article is a News-Cafe.eu translation, in adapted version, of an analysis published by the independent outlet NovayaGazeta, whose author Yulia Latynina explores the roles of various institutions and forces in the short-lived mutiny of the Wagner mercenaries under the command of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former ally of President Vladimir Putin. 

We believe that the FSB’s current leadership lacks people who are capable of decisive actions that are aimed at weakening Putin’s power. Nonetheless, some facts related to the “Prigozhin march” on 24 June 2023, for example, the circumstances of the border crossing by columns of mercenaries, indicate that the Russian special services did, at least, not interfere with the Wagner.

We don't like conspiracy theories or the beloved Russian term "multi-move" (complex operations). Conspiracies are less common in real life than in books, and "multi-move" exists mainly in the paranoid imagination of intelligence officers who attribute them to everyone and try to play this kind of game.

However, there are clear traces of a “multi-move” operation in the Wagner mutiny, and, paradoxically, it has been mostly successful.

Humiliating Putin

The main goal of this multi-move was the merciless weakening of Putin in order to depict him as an insignificant politician who has lost power and contact with reality, with the following the transfer of real power into the hands of those who managed to stop Prigozhin or negotiate with him. If so, then the goal is essentially achieved. And what we saw was only the first season of the series. In the second season, we are going to see the removal of Putin from power without a civil war, and its transition into the hands of those who stopped Prigozhin.

And it’s not about Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko at all.

Who usually stages military coups? The military, right, not some lump from the mountain of course.

Who usually leads the military? A minister of defense.

Wagner troops and tanks in Rostov. Credit: freeware Youtube footage

Who will become the new minister of defense based on the results of this whole story? Certainly not Sergey Shoygu, whose resignation, firstly, was one of Prigozhin’s demands, and who, secondly, showed his amazing uselessness. At least 4,000 men marched across the entire Russia to overthrow him. They walked 1,200 km, from Yenakyevo in Ukraine to Rostov in Russia - 200 km, and then from Rostov to Moscow another 1,000 km.

Mind that Shoygu had under his command 30,000 troops near near Rostov. So what? Nothing happened. This guy cannot stop 4,000 people from marching northward, so we wonder how is he going to deal with Ukraine’s armed forces?

In this whole story, you need to watch the hands of the magician who takes a hare out of a hat, and stop looking at his assistant.

As strange as it may seem, it was Prigozhine trying on the assistant’s role.

Let's summarize what we know so far.

The US intelligence community knew about the impending rebellion, according to the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.

If the US intelligence knew, then Valery Zaluzhny, chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also has this knowledge. Apparently, that is why he held back the offensive. It's good to attack when your opponent is going through a military coup, revolution or civil war. This is how the Germans advanced in 1918 and Putin chopped off the Crimea in 2014.

Rostov, by the way, is the main logistics hub of the Russian army.

All the food and ammunition are there. The capture of Rostov by the Wagner alone put an end to the supply of the Russian army.

The capture of the army headquarters in Rostov is equivalent to the explosion of a nuclear bomb in the main logistics, communications and supply center of the Russian army.

US intelligence knew because they intercepted the communications.

Who else knew?

The Federal Security Service (FSB), of course. Putin is paranoid. Therefore, the FSB in Russia taps everyone and everything. Putin's associates would be happy to conspire to throw him off, but they can't, because the FSB hears.

Here is why the FSB was likely aware. First, the rebellion had been prepared ahead of time. It is impossible in an hour to assemble a shock fist that will capture Rostov and move towards Moscow, even if such a force would include 25,000 men as Prigozhine boasts, instead of 4,000 in reality. It is also impossible to load tanks onto trawls within an hour, stock up on diesel fuel and food. Again, Prigozhin's convoy and parts of the second wave very competently began to advance after the assault group. Look where Prigozhin's camp was - near Yenakyevo. Find its location on the map. It’s where 200 km of the best highway to Rostov begins, a direct leap.

Prigozhin, after leaving Bakhmut, immediately occupied this strategic site.

The FSB knew all this.

More to read:
What is Prigozhin doing in Belarus? Has anyone seen Wagner there?

But who didn't know much about it? Obviously, the one who kept insisting that Prigozhin signed a contract with Shoygu: Mr. Putin. He thought that he was in control of the situation, but in fact he turned out to be a happy grandfather who lives in a celestial realm chewing the fables of Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov, who famously claimed that Russia had destroyed and crippled at least 20,000 Ukrainian tanks.

Neither did Shoygu know, it seems. For all his fantastic incompetence, being incapable of assembling a strike on the Wagner while knowing everything in advance is too much even for Shoygu.

Now let's take a closer look at the coup attempt itself. What is the most remarkable thing about it? Speed.

Itinerary of the Wagner march. Credit: SkyNews

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a specialist in organizing coups in Africa, and, frankly, in this case he acted strictly according to his specialty. If Rostov were the capital of Russia, the coup would have taken several hours. Capture the capital and that's all. But Russia is a big country and Rostov is not Moscow.

In any coup done with a small force, surprise is the key. During a war, speed is even more important than during a coup. The state is a huge, creaky, clumsy machine, but when it spins up, it is terrible. Prigozhine acted with the speed of a lightning. He started on Friday evening and by morning he was in Rostov. By the evening of the next day he was supposed to be in Moscow. He hoped some foes would be slow to figure it out, others would be out of time to prepare a response, and the third would wait to see the winner.

More to read:
[video] Two Wagner mercenaries recall how and why they killed Ukrainian children

Governmental clerks may pull the rubber for six hours or ten, maybe one day. And then something needs to be done. When the state stretches its wings – the game is over. Prigozhin had to slip somehow between the gears until they started spinning. And this bastard did it! We all watched local authorities’ convulsive attempts to cripple the highway with excavators, and saw the cops, military and security officers suddenly getting lost from the scene.

All of the above-said refers to a state that did not suspect anything, it was taken by surprise.

A trap for whom?

But we just assumed that the FSB knew. It’s not possible not to know. There must be people assigned to do watch after Prigozhine. Does anyone really think that Putin let a private army roam the country without surveillance?

How, then, was the state taken by surprise? A huge, clumsy state that knew in advance of the mutiny, it could set a trap for Prigozhine. It could also give a hint that there was a trap, and Prigozhine would be stopped.

And he stopped. But not before his march shattered Putin's authority into small pieces.

Pay attention whom Prigozhin criticized. It’s Shoygu. He talked about the army and the fat rats. It’s them who must be blamed for losing the war, the Wagner leader argued.

Isn't the FSB to blame? Didn't the FSB report to Putin that Kyiv would greet Russian soldiers with flowers? But Prigozhin has said not a single word about the FSB so far.

So, what happened anyway?

Prigozhin got driven into a corner. He accumulated huge military capital, entered into a conflict with the Ministry of Defense and discovered that in the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, all this capital would be deleted: the Wagnerites would be sent to the front line and wasted there.

In Moscow, he had allies who promised to support him. These were the same guys whose job was to put down the Wagner rebellion. Prigozhin was given time to destroy the authority of Putin - who, by the way, wasn’t even in Moscow at that time, he apparently was hiding in Valdai. And suddenly, Prigozhin got a warning that he would be destroyed if he put his foot in Moscow. They were waiting for him there.

More to read:
Police seize boxes with cash near Prigozhin’s St.Petersburg office

This doesn't mean everything went off without a hitch. It is unlikely, for example, that all parties expected the rotten Putin government to collapse so fast all along Prigozhin’s route or that Rostov residents would enthusiastically cheer Wagner tanks.

In general lines, the first phase has been a success. Just to refresh the thought: Prigozhin had allies in Moscow. Putin ordered these allies to stop him. As a result, those who stopped Prigozhin are now one step away from getting the power, and Putin is now a happy grandpa.

Vladimir Putin and Sergey Shoygu. Credit: Russian Defense Ministry

The thing is that the elite has achieved the realization that the war must stop, but Putin is inadequate and won’t stop it. The elite also understands that it should be done by avoiding the collapse of Russia or letting Prigozhin's thugs grab the power and jump on a looting rampage as it happened in 1917. The elite also hopes that the West will write off everything in return for a halted war. The first phase of this operation, oddly enough, has completed incredibly well, despite its complexity.

Now ask yourself, who loves complex operations? Yep, the special services.

To be continued.

p.s. Recruitment in the Wagner private army is going on as usual in cities across Russia. 

Please mind that News-Cafe.eu is not the author of this article and does not necessarily agree on its content