Cancer may become the primary cause of premature death globally by the end of this century.

A new study projects a significant increase in cancer cases and deaths among men worldwide by 2050, driven by higher prevalence of risk factors such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The research, published in the journal Cancer and led by Dr. Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu from The University of Queensland, Australia, highlights alarming disparities in cancer incidence and survival rates among different age groups and regions. 

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The study estimates that the number of cancer cases in men will rise by 84%, from 10.3 million in 2022 to 19 million by 2050. Meanwhile, cancer-related deaths are expected to increase by more than 93%, reaching 10.5 million globally. This surge is anticipated to be most pronounced among older men and in countries with lower Human Development Index (HDI) scores.

Key findings and methodology

The researchers analyzed data from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) for 2022, focusing on 30 types of cancer among men. The study examined cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence, and provided projections for 2050.

It also calculated mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) for various cancer types, with higher MIRs indicating worse survival outcomes.

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Key findings include:

• In 2022, lung cancer was the leading cause of both cancer cases and deaths among men, a trend expected to continue through 2050.
   
• The global MIR for men was nearly 55% in 2022, with the highest MIR observed in Africa (72.6%) and the lowest in the Americas (39.1%). Thyroid cancer had the lowest MIR (7.6%), while pancreatic cancer had the highest (90.9%).
   
• Disparities in cancer outcomes were particularly stark between high-HDI and low-HDI countries, with the latter experiencing significantly higher mortality rates.

The researchers acknowledge potential limitations due to the quality of GLOBOCAN data and cautions that the MIR may not fully capture all aspects of cancer outcome inequalities. Additionally, other measures of cancer burden, such as years of life lost or years lived with disability, were not included due to data unavailability.

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The study underscores the urgent need for targeted cancer prevention, screening, and treatment programs, particularly in low- and medium-HDI countries where the burden is expected to be greatest.

Cancer remains the second leading cause of premature death worldwide, after cardiovascular diseases, but by the end of the century it could become the leading cause of death globally, with significant social and economic consequences. The global economic burden of cancer was estimated at $25.3 billion in 2017, with a cumulative cost expected to reach $25.2 trillion between 2020 and 2050.

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