We’ll probably see again Americans storming supermarkets for toilet paper supplies.

The Trump administration’s proposed tariffs on Canadian lumber may once again leave U.S. stores struggling to stock toilet paper, reminiscent of the shortages at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The administration has threatened to impose a 27% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber as early as April 2, with the possibility of increasing it to 50% at a later date. This move could significantly impact the availability of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), a key material used in toilet paper and paper towel production.

NBSK is derived from wood chips, which are a byproduct of lumber production.

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Last year, the U.S. imported two million tons of Canadian NBSK, which is highly valued in the industry.

Some of these sawmills in the United States, some of the big branded products, not only want softwood pulp from Canada, they want softwood pulp from this particular mill — they’ve been using it for 30 years and they will not change, according to Brian McClay, chairman of the Trusted Providers of Global Pulp Market Information.

Jean-François Samray, CEO of the Quebec Forest Industry Council, has warned that the U.S. is “far from being self-sufficient” in softwood lumber production, suggesting that Trump’s tariffs could trigger panic-buying similar to what occurred at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Experts caution that even the mere threat of new tariffs could disrupt supply chains.

If the tariffs go into effect, they will drive up lumber prices, reduce tree harvesting, and ultimately shrink the supply of wood chips used to produce pulp. This would impact both the availability and cost of toilet paper.

When people start stockpiling goods out of fear, they create artificial shortages and drive up prices, even before any tariff effects take hold.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized the U.S. as “no longer a reliable trading partner” and pledged to implement retaliatory tariffs to protect Canadian workers and industries.

Sources: Bloomberg, NPR, Yahoo

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