Evidence is mounting that the commercial aircraft was attacked by air defense weapons.

Early on 25 December, an Embraer 190 passenger plane, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) and designated as flight number J2-8243, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, under circumstances that are still under investigation. Mounting evidence, however, in the form of shrapnel holes in the fuselage, indicates that the aircraft was attacked by air defense weapons.

The flight, which departed Baku at 8:50 AM Astana time, was initially scheduled to land in Grozny at 8:20 Moscow time. However, shortly before its planned arrival, the plane was redirected to Makhachkala due to reports of thick fog in Grozny. Subsequently, the flight trajectory changed again, leading the aircraft to cross the Caspian Sea towards Kazakhstan, where it ultimately crashed.

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Of the 67 people onboard including 5 crew members 38 have lost their lives while 32 survived. At least 29 passengers were hospitalized with various degrees of injury. Among survivors – all of whom were located in the tail section of the plane at the time of impact - there are 15 citizens of Azerbaijan, 9 Russians, 2 Kyrgyz nationals, and 3 individuals whose citizenship remains unconfirmed.

Eyewitness testimony from survivor Zaur Mamedov recounted details during the incident.

He described multiple explosions outside the plane, stating: “For the third time, something exploded. It wasn’t inside the plane, but the lining next to me flew off. I reached for my life jacket and noticed a hole in it. A piece of shrapnel had pierced it. After this explosion, shrapnel flew between my legs, hitting the life jacket and piercing it through.”

Video footage filmed by survivors immediately after the crash also shows the chaotic aftermath and the aircraft’s damaged integrity. The holes in the plane’s fuselage were consistent with the impact of shrapnel from an anti-aircraft missile, likely part of the Russian air defense system.

That day, Ukraine attacked Chechnya – which has sided with Russia in the war – with a sway of drones and the Russians may have mistaken the plane for one of them. Russian bloggers speculate that the Russian military employed Pantsir-S1 air defense system to intercept drones and inadvertently struck the passenger plane.

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This theory aligns with the shrapnel patterns caused by missiles designed to detonate near a target, dispersing thousands of metal fragments to ensure destruction.

In response to the incident, Azerbaijan Airlines suspended all flights on the Baku-Grozny-Baku and Baku-Makhachkala-Baku routes. The Kazakh Ministry of Emergency Situations confirmed ongoing investigations and assistance to the victims, with Aktau locals donating blood for them.

Sources: video reports in social media (here, here, here, here, here), AZAL company.x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1871981258789773408

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