American Enterprise Institute report says supporting Ukraine to defeat Russia is in the security and financial interests of the United States.

The price of Ukraine’s eventual defeat in the war against Russia will be higher for the United States and will make the latter less secure internationally.

In a scenario with Russia emerging victorious, there would be three almost certain events: the U.S. would stop providing aid to Ukraine; Russia will become more aggressive towards the West after taking over Ukraine; the U.S. will join forces with its NATO allies in Europe to deter Russian aggression, according to a report by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a think tank in Washington DC.

The analysis, based on projections from the AEI Defense Futures Simulator, suggests that Ukraine's defeat would not only embolden Moscow but also plunge the U.S. and NATO into a costly, long-term military buildup to counter an increasingly aggressive and powerful Russia.

Within five years after Ukraine’s simulated collapse, the U.S. would spend about seven times more than if it continued supporting the country.

The AEI analysts concluded that maintaining security in a strategic environment in which Russia is victorious over Ukraine could cost the United States an additional $808 billion in defense spending over five years.

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These resources would be required on top of the currently planned defense budget over that same period and would be used to build the defense capacity, capability, and posture to provide for American security and meet current commitments to NATO in the new, more dangerous strategic environment.

A map showing the relocation of NATO and Russian troops and weapons in the event of Ukraine's defeat. Credit: AEI

Since 2022, by contrast, Congress has appropriated $112 billion to the Department of Defense to assist Kyiv. That means the aid provided to Ukraine through the Pentagon is less than 14 percent of what it would cost Washington to defend Europe against a victorious Russia. The $112 billion is also spent mostly at home, on domestic weapons production.

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The organization shares an interesting point of view by alleging that in the event of Ukraine’s occupation, entirely or largest of its territory, Belarus will be incorporated into “Greater Russia” – a dream Vladimir Putin is fond of repeating to his supporters. In such case, he will force Ukrainians and Belarussians to serve alongside the Russian military, eventually against NATO and the U.S. particularly – and possibly in a future war in Central Europe or the Baltic region.

The AEI has no doubt that the U.S. will carry out its obligations to defend the allies in Europe, no matter who holds the White House.

The new report contrasts with complaints by president-elect Donald Trump that U.S. aid for Ukraine was becoming an unbearable burden for American taxpayers. It also hardly aligns with his plan to end the conflict on compromising terms including a partial occupation of Ukrainian territory, which will be a small but clear victory for Moscow.

Below is a breakdown of expenses compared to the planned spending and possible spending in the event of Ukraine’s defeat, in infographics.

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