The United States could become a mirror of Russia as a result of chain reaction of economic disruptions.

An economist has issued a stark warning: the growing excitement around artificial intelligence could destabilize the U.S. economy before AI even reaches its full potential. The dream of AI easing human labor is a utopia, he fears.

Caleb Maresca, a researcher at New York University, argues in a new study that mere expectations of AI-driven automation could send wages plummeting, drive interest rates to extreme levels, and widen the wealth gap to dangerous levels.

“My findings reveal that expectations of [transformative AI] can substantially affect current economic conditions. Even before any technological breakthrough occurs,” Maresca states.

More to read:
Humans may not survive Artificial Intelligence, says Israeli scientist

Maresca's analysis explores how speculation about AI’s ability to replace human jobs could trigger a cascade of negative effects. If businesses anticipate that AI will significantly cut labor costs, they might adjust their strategies well in advance, causing unintended consequences across the economy.

One major concern is a dramatic increase in interest rates. The study suggests that rates could rise by 10-16%, making borrowing more expensive. This would push up the cost of homeownership, business investments, and other essential financial activities, discouraging spending and slowing economic growth.

At the same time, Maresca warns that AI-driven job losses won’t necessarily lead to widespread prosperity. When a company replaces human workers with AI, the wages once paid to those employees don’t automatically circulate back into the broader economy. Instead, they flow to AI system owners—concentrating wealth in the hands of a few and exacerbating inequality.

A dangerous wealth divide

If AI continues to progress without intervention, Maresca suggests that the U.S. could begin to resemble Russia, where 1% of the population holds over 55% of the nation’s wealth. Unlike in Russia, however, AI could reduce the demand for human labor altogether, further destabilizing the economy and leaving millions with limited financial opportunities.

As AI executives like OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Tesla’s Elon Musk envision a future where human jobs are optional, Maresca’s research indicates that such a scenario could be catastrophic for the majority of workers. He warns that without significant policy measures, AI-driven automation could hollow out the middle class and leave much of the workforce struggling to stay afloat.

More to rad:
IMF: Prepare for AI to disrupt nearly 40% of jobs globally

The researcher emphasizes that proactive policies are crucial to ensuring AI benefits society as a whole rather than just a select few. “The best thing people can do collectively is to push politicians to enact policies that ensure that the wealth created by [transformative AI] is shared broadly,” he told Futurism.

For individuals, he advises preparing for a future where traditional job skills may lose value, and financial investments in AI-related industries could become essential for maintaining economic security.

Since not everyone has the means to invest, making fair economic policies, careful planning and regulation could help somewhat. The utopian vision of AI easing the existence of the masses will most likely remain a dream, the scholar said.

***

NewsCafe relies in its reporting on research papers that need to be cracked down to average understanding. Some even need to be paid for. You can support us via PayPal: office[at]rudeana.com or https://paypal.me/newscafeeu, or https://buymeacoffee.com/newscafe - any amount is welcome. You may also want to like or share our story, that would help us too.