Trump’s rare earths deal is a trap for Ukraine, warns an exiled Russian economist.

President Donald Trump views Ukraine as largely irrelevant to U.S. strategic interests and is effectively selling it to Russia in pursuit of a future partnership against China. To achieve this, he also needs a weak, dysfunctional European Union, a former senior policy advisor to Vladimir Putin said in a new interview.

According to Andrey Illarionov, Trump’s approach is shaped by a transactional mindset, prioritizing personally-crafted deals over generations-designed strategic alliances. In his worldview, global politics revolves around great powers dividing spheres of influence, and Ukraine, in his assessment, belongs to Russia’s domain. As a result, Kyiv’s sovereignty and security are merely bargaining chips in Trump’s broader geopolitical ambitions.

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A key part of Trump’s strategy is to suppress Kyiv’s voice on the global stage, including silencing President Volodimir Zelenski and downplaying Ukraine’s role in global security, Illarionov stated.

While the White House has conditioned further U.S. assistance on securing a rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine, Illarionov warns that believing such economic ties can deter Russian aggression is dangerously naïve. He argues that economic prosperity cannot exist without security guarantees — something Trump appears unwilling to provide.

The rare earths deal is a trap for Ukraine, Illarionov warns. 

“This is kindergarten logic, I’m sorry to say.

History has shown time and again that foreign economic interests do not deter military intervention. There were numerous American companies operating in Donbass in 2014. Did that stop Putin from attacking? No,” he pointed out, citing U.S. agribusiness giant Cargill, whose assets were seized by Russian-backed forces.

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Illarionov noted that many American firms were present in southeastern Ukraine at the time, yet no U.S. administration defended them. “Moscow doesn’t care what nationality the extracting companies are,” he said. “Only military guarantees provide the necessary conditions for future economic growth.”

Illarionov also warned that the European Union should prepare to stand alone politically and militarily. According to him, Trump’s team is actively working to cripple the E.U., making it easier for Russia to defeat Ukraine — either partially or entirely. Once absorbed into a reborn Russian empire, Ukraine’s population would be conscripted into the Russian military and used as a weapon against Europe.

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“It is a long-standing Russian tradition to seize new territories, exploit their resources, and use their populations as cannon fodder for further expansion,” Illarionov cautioned. “Imagine well-trained, well-equipped, and very experienced Ukrainian troops being forced to fight against their former allies.”

He stressed that Europe must decide — immediately — whether it is willing to defend itself and Ukraine, which he considers an integral part of the continent’s security. With both the U.S. and Russia pushing to dismantle international rules in favor of raw military power, Illarionov warned that more nations will now seek nuclear weapons as the only reliable deterrent.

Andrey Illarionov currently lives in the United States, working as a senior fellow at the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity of the U.S. think tank Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.

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