When then-candidate Donald Trump began touting tariffs as a cornerstone of his economic policy, few realized just how flimsy the intellectual foundation behind the idea truly was. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, a disturbing picture has emerged — one that reveals the absence of any coherent economic doctrine within Trump’s team and exposes how a fictional economist helped shape U.S. trade policy, a new report on MSNBC says.

The idea of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods – and later on the rest of the world – wasn’t born out of rigorous policy debates or consultations with leading economists. Instead, it was the brainchild of Peter Navarro, an American economist who sold his ideas via Amazon.com, whose nationalist thoughts reinforced Trump’s poor understanding of economy.

Found on Amazon

Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and close adviser, was tasked with finding an economic voice for Trump’s 2016 campaign. Lacking qualified candidates, Kushner turned to Amazon’s book listings, where he stumbled upon “Death by China”, co-authored by Navarro. The book’s provocative title caught Kushner’s eye — and just like that, Navarro became the campaign’s go-to economic "expert."

But where did Navarro get his ideas? Much of his argument in favor of tariffs rested on frequent references to an “economic authority” named Ron Vara. Navarro cited Vara repeatedly in his books to support his hawkish stance on China and global trade.

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There was just one problem: Ron Vara never existed. The so-called expert was an invention — a fabrication created by Navarro himself. In fact, “Ron Vara” is an anagram of “Navarro.” Rearranging the letters of his own surname, Navarro conjured up a fictional economist to lend credibility to his theories. And nobody in Trump’s inner circle bothered to fact-check him.

Despite this glaring red flag, Navarro’s influence grew, and his tariff-first ideology became central to Trump’s economic rhetoric. Markets reacted, often with volatility. Analysts estimate that Trump’s erratic tariff policy contributed to losses of up to $6 trillion in global markets and edged the world closer to a self-inflicted economic downturn reminiscent of the Great Depression.

Donald Trump announcing the tariffs for more than 60 countries. Credit: White House

The result? A trade war founded on make-believe. What was presented as a deliberate strategy was, in reality, a fanfiction-level fantasy — with real-world consequences.

Peter Navarro, the self-styled economic thinker unearthed from Amazon, built an entire policy proposal around a character of his own invention. And that character — Ron Vara — was the basis for one of the most consequential economic decisions of the Trump era.

Peter Navarro is currently the senior counselor for trade and manufacturing for U.S. President Donald Trump. He previously served in the first Trump administration, first as the director of the White House National Trade Council, then as the director of the new Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. He is a professor of economics and public policy at the Paul Merage School of Business of the University of California, Irvine.

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AI-generated tariff scheme

And there’s more: recent reports have raised concerns that the tariff rates introduced by President Trump may have been influenced by calculations resembling those generated by AI chatbots, such as ChatGPT.

These tariffs, aimed at addressing trade deficits, were determined using a formula that divides the U.S. trade deficit with a specific country by the total value of imports from that country, then halves the result to set the tariff rate. This method mirrors suggestions made by AI chatbots when prompted about balancing trade deficits.

Economists have criticized this approach, arguing that it oversimplifies complex trade dynamics and could lead to unintended economic consequences, including market instability and increased consumer prices.

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While the Trump administration has denied direct reliance on AI in formulating these tariffs, the similarities between the administration's methodology and AI-generated suggestions raise legitimate questions about the role of artificial intelligence in policy-making.

The Trump administration’s approach may be remembered not just for its economic impact, but also as a case study in the risks of policymaking without doctrine, accountability, or a firm grounding in empirical reality.

Global markets have been in free fall since Trump introduced the new tariffs on 6 April 2025, with his billionaire donors losing trillions of dollars in stock devaluation. 

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