Refusing it may prompt Poland and Baltic nations to engage Russia in Ukraine unilaterally.

Some NATO members such as Poland and the three Baltic countries may be willing to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine, if the United States-led bloc fails to offer tangible security guarantees to Kyiv such as a formal invitation to join the organization, according to the alliance’s former chief Anders Rasmussen. 

The Dane, who is currently hired as an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski, is touring the European and US capitals to mobilize more support from NATO members ahead of the bloc’s 11 July summit in Vilnius, Lithiuania. Speaking to the press from this position, he called on NATO to provide a clear path for Ukraine in Europe’s future security architecture under NATO umbrella. 

While a part of participants at the summit might avoid a direct discussion on Ukrainian membership in NATO, others could openly insist to do just that. This remark is a response to the remarks of the organization’s current secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg that full-fledged security guarantees can be offered only to full-rights members.

The guarantees would cover intelligence sharing, joint Ukraine training, enhanced ammunition production, NATO interoperability, and a sufficient weapon supply.

Anders Rasmussen said:

“If NATO cannot agree on a clear path forward for Ukraine, there is a clear possibility that some countries individually might take action. We know that Poland is very engaged in providing concrete assistance to Ukraine. And I wouldn’t exclude the possibility that Poland would engage even stronger in this context on a national basis and be followed by the Baltic states, maybe including the possibility of troops on the ground. I think the Poles would seriously consider going in and assemble a coalition of the willing if Ukraine doesn’t get anything in Vilnius. [...] the Poles feel that for too long western Europe did not listen to their warnings against the true Russian mentality.”

It would be entirely legal for Ukraine to seek such military assistance, he stressed, adding that it was imperative that Ukraine received written security guarantees, preferably before the summit but outside the organization’s framework.

More to read:
Prigozhin: Russian war made Ukraine stronger and famous worldwide

Whether Rasmussen’s bold statements will receive warm handshakes or a cold shower remains to be seen, but they will certainly test the unity among the NATO members. France and Germany, for example, fear that accepting Ukraine within the bloc too soon (before the end of the war) might attract Russian strikes on their own territories, with further escalation into a new world war.

In response to Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and sponsorship for fighting in eastern Ukraine, in 2014, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania formed joined military units, which currently number several thousand soldiers. 

It is highly unlikely that Kyiv will receive a formal invitation to join the alliance at the Vilnius summit. Given that Sweden still struggles to shore up a consensus on its entry, Ukraine will not be able to persuade even a minority of members – not to mention Hungary or Turkey that are quite friendly to the Kremlin.

Anders Rasmussen served as Denmark’s 24th prime minister in 2001-2009 and as NATO’s 12th secretary-general 2009-2014.