New reform will allow President Putin to mobilize up to five million men in the armed forces.

As victory against Ukraine is highly unlikely while its own defeat is a probability getting a firmer outline, the Russian Federation is struggling to rebuild its armed forces after an 18-month long decimation by the neighbor’s army. 

In August, the State Duma – lower chamber of the Russian parliament – passed legislation that aims at overhauling the military and tightening the grip on dissent. Changes include expanding the conscription age to 30 (previously 27), from 1 January 2024, and increasing the maximum age for reservists and mobilization reserve by five years. 

Under the new mobilization law, up to five million Russians can be called up for war, while draft dodgers get hefty fines – up to 30,000 rubles (308 US dollars) – for failing to show up at recruitment center on time and restrictions on leaving Russia immediately after drafting notice is issued.

Andrey Kartapolov, a co-author of these changes, spoke with conviction when referring to the “defense of the Motherland” and the importance of new legislation.

"This law is written for a greater war, one that we can sense is coming," Novaya Gazeta quoted him as saying. 

Medusa, another independent outlet, estimates that at least five million men might be affected by the reform by 2028, or approximately 16% of the 31.5-million male population aged 18-50 in Russia. 

The shortage of manpower on the Ukrainian frontlines will determine President Vladimir Putin to profit from new legislation. As the maximum age for reservists will peak 55, in a few years, the Kremlin will be able to send more men to war.

Russian recruits during a parade last spring. Credit: Getty Images 

At the same time, governors have been granted the authority to establish local militia or private military groups for border protection and maintenance of public order. No age – or sex – restriction has been imposed on the formation of such units, with Moscow leaving the choice at the discretion of its regional representatives.

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While some Duma members, like Speaker Valentina Matviyenko, sought to downplay the amendments, claiming they merely “extended opportunities to fulfill civic duties,” Russia seems to be preparing to lock its citizens in an extensive war, with propaganda injecting into their minds the idea of an armed conflict with NATO members in the future.

Kirill Mikhailov, a military researcher, told Novaya Gazeta that "by extending the maximum age for reservists by five years, the Kremlin is widening the pool of individuals who can serve under contracts or be mobilized in the event of a new wave of conflict."

The nation is getting ready for a longer and bigger war.