Whatever happens, Vladimir Putin’s Russia stands no chance to conquer the whole of Ukraine or win the war. On the other hand, it won’t be easy for Ukraine to achieve a clear victory over the next two years.

The reality will be somewhere in the middle, split between five possible security scenarios, with the option “frozen conflict” getting the highest score, according to a survey conducted last November among 41 experts and commissioned by GlobSec, a global think-tank based in Bratislava to promote security, prosperity and sustainability in Europe and throughout the world. 

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The new study (PDF), a continuation of the previous work on scenario building in the fall of 2022, is a foresight analysis of potential short- and medium-term security developments in Ukraine and their further implications for European and global security, combining expert survey, brainstorming, and desk research to map possible transformations and changes in Ukraine's security environment. 

In contrast to the 2022/23 scenarios, the new research is leaning more towards the negative side.

Each of the five scenarios have various degrees of likelihood, based on the probability scores contributed by the respondents during research.

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The first scenario is the transformation of the current setting into a “Hybrid Type World War III,” with acute regional conflicts and wars across the globe to blur the Ukraine war with wars in the Middle East, Caucasus, Balkans, Asia-Pacific, and elsewhere. This version was voted by 27.26% of participating experts.

The second, and most likely, development is the prolonged war of attrition beyond 2025. This scenarios gained more than 31%.

The expert community also admits that the conflict may be frozen or brought to stalemate, under political and diplomatic pressure from third countries (18.8%).

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The same score (18.8%) is valid for the liberation of Ukrainian territories from Russian occupation or withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, with the sides achieving no political or diplomatic breakthrough.

The last, most optimistic but least probable among the five scenarios, is the defeat of the Russian Federation and restoration of Kyiv’s full control of territories within the internationally recognized borders. Russia agrees to pay reparations and its war criminals are deferred to justice. Only 3.76% of respondents believe in this option.

The factors to impact the situation

Asked to name ten most impactful factors from 58 suggested, upon which Ukrainians must hang on in order to win, the survey participants named the following (from most important to least):

• Resource sufficiency of the security and defense sector of Ukraine;
• Operational and tactical successes of the Ukrainian armed forces;
• Level of support for Ukraine with weapons by all partners (West+);
• The US presidential elections in 2024;
• Increasing the production of weapons and ammunition by Ukrainian industry;
• The state of Ukraine's mobilization resources;
• The potential of Ukraine and Russia in unmanned systems;
• Level of political and diplomatic support for Ukraine by all partners (West+);
• Russia's military potential to continue the war;
• Stockpiles of weapons and ammunition in the E.U. and other partners of Ukraine.

The research also underlines the importance of the outcome of the European parliamentary elections and the U.S. presidential elections in 2024, fearing the rise of populist, pro-Putin forces and the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

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Other factors to bear in mind are the internal political stability and trust in the government of Ukraine; the global energy sustainability; and Russian resilience to sanctions.

Moscow will not give up under any circumstances

All the proposed scenarios have a common denominator: Russia will never relinquish the idea of conquering Ukraine and destroying its statehood, regardless of changes in the political regime there. Therefore, many experts consider the factor called “withdrawal of Putin from power” as less relevant to the analysis (ranking as far as number 37 out of 58 factors).

“With Russia being infamous for its careless breaches of the international legal order, no one should rely on its maturity to respect it in the future. With this in mind, strong mechanisms of deterrence, notably bilateral security arrangements with Ukraine in the immediate term, and membership of Ukraine in the EU and NATO in the medium term are considered to be the only viable instruments to bring down Russia’s imperialistic appetites,” the study’s authors recommend.

They cautioned that premature negotiations with Moscow and an eventual pause in the war will benefit Russia more than Ukraine and its allies, as the Kremlin will use it to rebuild its forces and attempt again to conquer the neighboring country.

Russia will never forget or forgive its humiliation in its blitzkrieg plans to conquer Ukraine and will continue building a strong military state. It will be licking its wounds and preparing itself for another fight, be it in two or three years or more, the survey suggests.

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“Russia’s attack on NATO is not ruled out,” the research warns, as the West’s attention is being dispersed among a growing number of armed conflicts - with Serbia-Kosovo, Armenia-Azerbaijan, and Israel-Hamas being just starters of a domino evolution. A deterioration of relations between the United States and China over Taiwan is another risk to take into account.

Regardless of the situation in Russia itself and its external efforts, the main military factors that will determine a positive outcome of this conflict for Ukraine are:

1. Increased and stable supply of military, technical and financial assistance to Ukraine from its partners, and
2. The ability of the military and political leadership of Ukraine to ensure rapid transformation of the defence and security sector to achieve technological superiority over the enemy.

The analysis is the work of three Ukrainian experts and has been funded by the European Union to figure out which way the situation in Ukraine is likely to turn.

The authors stressed that their study should be interpreted as paths of probability, admitting that they may have omitted important pieces and therefore it does not reflect the entire picture. Nonetheless, the interviewed experts ruled out the option in which Russia wins the war or takes control over the whole of Ukraine.

Nor do they see Russia turning into a democratic state in the immediate future.

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