LeoLabs says low orbit disasters are inevitable.

An orbital mapping firm in California, the U.S., is warning the world through the media that the junk humanity has left on Earth’s orbit is a ticking time bomb ready to trigger a catastrophe any time now.

Founded in 2015, LeoLabs is an aerospace company that supplies and provides low Earth orbit mapping and space situational awareness services. Its software platform offers an open API and provides the basis for a new generation of SSA and traffic safety services.

In a recent interview to Forbes, LeoLabs senior technical fellow Darren McKnight described the issue in pessimistic terms, pointing to the fact that almost 30,000 objects bigger than an apple are hurtling through space around our planet at extremely fast speeds, about 28,000 kilometers per hour.

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LeoLabs is able to track objects 10 centimeters in diameter and larger but anything smaller is off its radar.

Any fragments measuring above a few millimeters could be lethal for equipment and astronauts, according to LeoLabs Chief Operating Officer Dan Ceperly.

The main question on the table is not “if” but “when” as collisions of space junk with space shuttles, satellites and stations are inevitable, he stated, and LeoLabs might be running out of time to prevent a catastrophe.

He gave as an example, in the same interview, an incident that occurred in 2021, when a tiny piece of shrapnel ripped through a robotic arm outside the International Space Station. Luckily it didn’t penetrate ISS capsules or any life supporting systems. Yet, there’s a leakage problem aboard that can’t be solved for months.

More recently, in June 2022, two discarded upper stages of a Soviet rocket and an American rocket dangerously passed one by another within just 152 meters. A collision could have shot debris into any parts of space, increasing the likelihood of hitting equipment on orbit.

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LeoLabs calls for international cooperation in an effort to clean up the space around the planet, with the three major space powers – the U.S., China, and Russia – assuming the hardest and most expensive part of the job since they are responsible for 90% of the garbage left there.

Is there any chance that the three nations - which are competing militarily and technologically – will sit to discuss the matter?

Meanwhile a cohort of private initiatives has emerged to address the problem – ClearSpace of Switzerland; Astroscale of Japan; Surrey Satellite Technology and Skyrora of the U.K.; OrbitGuardians, Northrop Grumman and Kall Morris Inc. of the U.S.; Digantara, Aviosonic, Starfish Space… more than 20 notable firms.

Perhaps not all hope is lost.

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