Scientists warn that Earth’s natural defenses against carbon emissions may be breaking down.

In recent years, natural systems like forests, oceans, and soils, which act as Earth's carbon sinks, appear to be weakening in their ability to absorb CO₂, raising serious concerns about the future of climate stability.

Preliminary findings from 2023 - the hottest year on record - show that land-based carbon absorption temporarily collapsed, with forests, soil, and vegetation collectively capturing almost no CO₂.

This development, exacerbated by extreme weather, was not anticipated in most climate models, which tend to project gradual declines rather than sudden collapses in nature’s carbon-storing capacities, according to a research paper produced by a team of climate scientists from the United Kingdom, China, France, and Germany – with contribution from Microsoft.

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Billions of marine organisms engage during the night time in a vertical migration that helps sequester carbon on the ocean floor. However, disruptions caused by warming oceans and melting sea ice threaten this process, exposing zooplankton to more sunlight and potentially reducing carbon sequestration in the depths.

Climate scientists now see cracks in the resilience of both terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks, warning that nature’s balancing role is nearing its limits while responses are less predictable.

On the one side, Greenland’s glaciers and Arctic ice sheets are melting at unprecedented rates, altering ocean currents and slowing carbon absorption. The Amazon, on the other side, once a robust carbon sink, is suffering record droughts exacerbated by deforestation, with some tropical rainforests now releasing more CO₂ than they absorb.

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Human-made emissions hit a record 40.6 billion tons in 2023 including 36.8 billion from fossil emissions, which makes it difficult to meet climate targets. Rising temperatures, wildfires, and droughts are pushing the world’s ecosystems toward collapse, making climate goals even harder to achieve.

In the northern hemisphere, a decline in carbon absorption has been observed for eight consecutive years. Studies show that boreal forests across Russia, Scandinavia, Canada, and Alaska are absorbing significantly less CO₂, due to warming-induced beetle outbreaks, fires, and deforestation. Soil emissions are also expected to rise by 40% by the century’s end as drying conditions accelerate microbial activity that breaks down carbon-storing matter.

The complexity of nature means that there are significant gaps in our understanding of how ecosystems work. Current climate models often overlook extreme events, such as drought-induced tree mortality, which could lead to overly optimistic forecasts.

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The authors called on governments to adhere to net-zero emissions initiatives before it’s too late or prepare for unpredictable consequences – if this is even feasible.

Global Carbon Budget, a nonprofit sponsored by University of Exeter, UK, just released a new dire warning this week: total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tons in 2024 including 37.4 billion from fossil emissions.

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