Ex-Russian strategist says Moscow did not oppose Moldova reuniting with Romania as part of the Transnistrian conflict settlement.

Moldova, a land-locked country between Romania and Ukraine and one of the poorest in Europe, had a unique chance to become a member of the European Union when Romania joined the bloc in 2007, avoiding much of the hardship it has been struggling with ever since.

Speaking in a recent interview to a Ukrainian journalist, a former Russian strategist who had worked with oligarchs close to the presidential administration during Vladimir Putin’s first term in office draw parallels between Moscow’s sponsored separatism in Ukraine and in Moldova.

Stanislav Belkovsky forecast that the Kremlin would like to freeze the war in Ukraine on its own terms, much like it did in Moldova in 1992 and in Georgia in 2008.

As a result of a brief war in 1992, Moldova lost its eastern territories – called Transnistria – to Russian proxies. The region, which declared independence from Moldova, has been a source of smuggling and blackmail for the government in Chisinau ever since.

However, in 2004, Moscow was prepared to settle the Transnistrian conflict under terms that were favorable for Chisinau, said Belkovsky.

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“There was a plan to settle the Transnistrian issue 20 years ago, for which Romanian President Traian Basescu offered his support and edits.

That plan provided for the reunification of Moldova with Romania while granting Transnistria the right to self-determination,” recalled Belkovsky, who was the lead author of this plan. “If this had happened, the people of Moldova – who are ethnic Romanians – would have become part of the European Union [when Romania joined the bloc three years later].”

Such reunification was logical and at that time Putin would not have objected to this scenario in principle, according to the commentator, but official Chisinau opposed it.

It turned out that the reunification proposal contradicted the interests of Moldova’s elites, who exploited the Transnistrian issue as a source of corruption revenues and political gains.

“If Moldova and Romania were one state, the Plahotniuc, Shor, Filat [convicted politicians] and Laundromat did not exist and these individuals would have not become billionaires,” Belkovsky stated.

He suggested that the Cypriot model of country division – although not ideal – would have served better the people of Moldova than the 32-year-old status quo.

In 2004, Moldova was ruled by the Communists Party led by Vladimir Voronin and its allies – formally in opposition – Braghis Alliance and Christian Democrats.

In a nationwide referendum in October 2024, Moldova chose to join the E.U., thanks to the diaspora vote mainly. More than half of its 2.48-million population holds Romanian citizenship. 

Stanislav Belkovsky is a writer and political analyst. From 2002 to 2004, he was the director of the Russian Council on National Strategy. In 2004, he founded the National Strategic Institute of Russia. He had also worked as a political consultant, most prominently to late Boris Berezovsky.

A vocal critic of Putin, he emigrated to Israel in 2022 amid fears for his safety in Russia.

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